Grain carts aren't typically the first category of concern for the dealers we work with. But the data coming out of Tractor Zoom Pro tells a different story — and if you know what to look for, it's the kind of early signal that can shift how you manage your entire lot, not just your cart inventory.
The broader equipment market has made meaningful progress working through its oversupply problem. Overall inventory supply is down roughly 30% from its peak in late summer 2024. But while the headline number looks encouraging, the underlying conditions have shifted in ways that are creating new pressure. Commodity prices have remained stubbornly low, and tariffs have thrown a curveball into the situation, pushing up the cost of imported finished goods and raw materials, which has translated into higher new machinery prices. At the same time, auction values for most equipment categories dropped last year.
That growing divide between new machine costs and used market reality, combined with the fact that many farming operations upgraded equipment four years ago when profits were strong, has put grain carts in a precarious position.
Average days advertised for grain carts in the Tractor Zoom database
Average days listed for grain carts currently on dealer lots has climbed from just over 300 days (already concerning on its own) to nearly 400 days in the span of a single year. December is historically the second-strongest month for grain cart sales, trailing only August. This past December, retail unit sales came in at just 60% of the prior year's volume. And despite lower overall inventory levels, turn metrics have continued to lag behind spring 2025 benchmarks.
3 month rolling average of the unit turn rate for grain carts in the Tractor Zoom database
Why Carts Are Different
Understanding why grain carts are stalling matters because it gives us a framework for spotting which other categories are next.
Grain carts are economically elastic. When retail prices rise, and they have, demand drops fast. That happens when buyers have readily available substitutes, when the decision can be deferred without major consequences, and when tightening liquidity shrinks the pool of buyers willing to act. Right now, all of those conditions are in play.
Start with forward buying. When commodity prices were higher in '21 through '23, many operations increased their grain hauling capacity. The average grain cart size sold at auction has grown meaningfully over the past four years, which is evidence that a lot of that capacity upgrade already happened. Those bigger, newer carts are still running fine.
Grain carts last longer since they have fewer wear parts than powered equipment, which means the replacement cycle stretches out too. An operation that upgraded in 2022 simply isn't a buyer in 2026, regardless of what you price it at.
Then there's what's happened to retail values relative to purchasing power. Average list prices for carts in the 900 to 1,100 bushel range held relatively steady from 2023 through 2025. In 2026, those asking prices are up approximately 13% year-over-year. That's a tough ask in an environment where farm equity remains solid but cash flow in the row crop sector is significantly strained. When liquidity tightens, deferrable purchases get deferred — and grain carts are about as deferrable as it gets.
Average retail price of grain carts with 900 - 1,100 bushel capacity produced after 2014
What Grain Carts Are Telling Us About the Rest of Your Lot
Here's where it gets more useful. Grain carts aren't unique in these characteristics. They are just the category where the pattern showed up first and most visibly. So the question worth asking is: What else in your inventory is sitting in a similar position?
To find out, I ran through the Tractor Zoom Pro database looking for categories showing three warning signs: (1) Average dealer list values up more than 10% year-over-year, (2) average days advertised up more than 20%, and (3) enough market presence to matter, meaning at least 5% of total current dealer inventory. Four categories were flagged: Self-propelled sprayers, Class 7 combines, and both the 100–174 and 175–299 horsepower row crop tractor segments.
Not all four carry the same risk. Running them through the same elasticity logic we used on grain carts helps sort them out. Self-propelled sprayers have shown strong resilience despite the lower commodity price environment. Advances in sprayer technology and growing fungicide application demand are making substitutes harder to come by, which reduces the elasticity risk considerably. Lower horsepower utility tractors, while flagged by the data, are getting meaningful support from a strong cattle market, which tends to insulate that buyer segment from the same row crop liquidity pressures. I highlighted the data underpinning the strength of both of these categories in our most recent Tractor Zoom webinar.
That narrows the real concern to Class 7 combines and lower horsepower row crop tractors. A good number of farming operations upgraded from Class 7s to Class 8s over the past five years, sitting in a position not unlike grain carts, yet they will carry higher maintenance costs as they age. Lower horsepower row crop tractors are worth watching as well. The farms that rely on these lines of equipment are the same ones feeling the liquidity squeeze hardest right now.
The seasonality of cart sales, as well as combine and tractor sales, is upon us. August is the peak selling month for harvest equipment, and the aforementioned headwinds will be challenging. Dealers who get ahead of this now by identifying likely buyers, pressure-testing pricing against the current market, and moving aging inventory before carrying costs compound even more will be in a better position than those waiting for demand to come to them.
The data is sending a signal. The question is whether you're watching it closely enough to act before it becomes obvious to everyone.
Trade Values & Trends is brought to you by Tractor Zoom.
Tractor Zoom transforms and connects big data into real-time actionable insights, accelerating a dealership’s heavy machinery and farm equipment business. Our solution, the only one providing transparent, comparable sales data, connects multiple data systems into one easy to use CRM and equipment valuation platform, empowering dealers to optimize decisions, maximize inventory turns, and increase your team’s efficiency and effectiveness. Spend less time on unproductive tasks and more time growing your customer base as we revolutionize the way you drive profitable decisions in the equipment industry.
Andy Campbell is the Director of Insights at Tractor Zoom, where he helps equipment dealerships turn data into faster decisions, better alignment, and stronger margins. Raised on a multi-generation Iowa farm, Andy blends deep ag roots with experience in Fortune 500 companies, tech startups, academia, and as a consultant to make sense of what’s really driving the farm equipment market.
