As the fourth Thursday in November approaches, some shoppers may wonder how food price inflation will affect the cost of their favorite dishes, including pumpkin pie. In fact, for many Americans, it might be hard to imagine a Thanksgiving feast without it.

In September 2017, the ingredients for a pumpkin pie totaled $4.12, with pumpkin making up 65% of that cost and butter accounting for 15%. This same pie would have cost $3.24 to bake in September 2016. Flour and egg prices were lower in September 2017 compared to September 2016, while milk prices remained relatively flat. Butter, sugar and pie pumpkins — smaller, rounder and denser than carving pumpkins — were all more expensive in September 2017 compared to a year earlier.

Additional savings could be found this November, as retail stores often offer specials on holiday baking staples. More information on ERS’s food price forecasts can be found in ERS’s Food Price Outlook data product, updated Oct. 25, 2017.