Net cash farm income (NCFI) and net farm income (NFI) are two common measures of farm sector profitability. NCFI includes cash receipts and farm program government payments less cash expenses; it represents the net cash income available to farmers in a given year.
The Assn. of Equipment Manufacturers reported tractors under 40 HP experienced a significant increase in January shipments as compared to the January 2015 number, but retail sales dropped from 4,129 last January to 1,550 last month.
It should come as no surprise, but in its Feb. 9 Farm Sector Income & Finance report, USDA is again projecting that net farm income for U.S. farmers will decline for the third year in a row.
Net farm income is forecast to decline for the second consecutive year, after reaching recent historic highs in 2013. NFI is expected to fall nearly $33 billion (36%) from 2014’s estimate to $58.3 billion in 2015. The 2015 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, and $29.1 billion below the 10-year average.
According to AgriBank's Insights newsletter, the current market conditions and resulting long-run forecasts suggest we are in the beginning of a down cycle in economic returns primarily for crop production, the largest segment of agriculture across the 15-state AgriBank District.
Conventional wisdom would tell us, no. Now is the time to avoid the risk that comes with a soft market and wait until business picks back up. This kind of sounds to me like trying to time the stock market: take your best educated guess at when things will pick up or fall off and hope you guessed correctly.
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