Writing in an early March editorial, Pinion Director of Government and Public Affairs Brian Kuehl focuses on ways U.S. agriculture is impacted by trade policies and shares what he feels is at stake for producers under the new tariffs announced by the Trump Administration. Kuehl, who leads the financial services and accounting firm’s Government and Public Affairs service area, leverages his background in environmental law and regulations. As such, his work, “The Impact of Trade Policies on U.S. Agriculture,” is focused on identifying and educating business owners on how to influence and change political systems for a market advantage.

“There’s just so much uncertainty,” said Kuehl in a discussion with Farm Equipment’s Managing Editor on the situation.

In summarizing recent tariff updates and the whirlwind of activity on trade disputes over the past months between the United States, Canada, Mexico and China, Kuehl presents facts and figures impacting farmers, equipment manufacturers and dealerships. Portions of his published article are provided here with permission.

  • On March 4, following a monthlong pause for negotiations, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Coming just six years after the completion of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement, these actions raise concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and its neighbors.
  • Combined with the 20% tariffs that President Trump has placed on imports from China and retaliatory tariffs levied on U.S. exports by Canada, Mexico, and China, these trade disputes could significantly impact U.S. agriculture.
  • On March 6, Trump announced a further delay until April 2 on tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican imports that fall under an existing trade deal between the North American countries. Canadian potash will face a 10% tariff, down from 25% previously. Trump promised the “predominant” tariffs are still to come.
  • On March 11, Trump ordered his administration to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports by an additional 25%, bringing the total duties to 50%, only to reverse course the following day. Canada is the top supplier of foreign steel to the United States.

“It is imperative we consider the long-term effects of these trade policies, which could lead to decreased market access and potentially permanent loss of market share to global competitors,” said Kuehl. He adds, “This ongoing uncertainty not only jeopardizes our farmers’ livelihoods but also the stability of food prices and supply chains both domestically and globally.”

With regard to global food production, Kuehl says, “This stake of an escalating trade war is immense as global markets are critical for the financial health of U.S. agriculture.” He shares the following statistics:

  1. U.S. agricultural exports equaled about $176 billion in 2024.
  2. 20% of U.S. farm products are sold to foreign markets with Canada, Mexico, and China being the top three markets for U.S. agricultural exports.
  3. Retaliatory tariffs pose a significant threat to soybeans, the leading farm export by value in the U.S., along with exports of corn, wheat, and meat.

Retaliation Tariffs from Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU

In response to President Trump’s tariffs, Canada, Mexico, and China announced plans to impose tariffs on the U.S. several weeks ago, noted Kuehl in the March 13 editorial which was published on Pinion’s website. He shed light on the retaliatory tariffs, from Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU which include the following plans to impose tariffs on the U.S.:

  • Canada is moving ahead with plans to impose 25% tariffs on $107 billion of American goods, including orange juice, peanut butter, wine, and coffee which will take effect immediately. Several Canadian provinces have also announced their own responses, such as removing U.S. alcohol from stores.

Notably, Canada is the top export market for U.S. ethanol and processed foods.

  • China issued their own set of retaliatory measures including 10% tariffs on U.S. agricultural machinery, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, and 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.

In 2024, China imported $24.7 billion in farm products from the U.S., or 14% of its $176 billion in total farm exports. China is the largest export destination for U.S. soybeans, purchasing over $15 billion in 2023.

  • Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said that she would announce retaliatory tariffs on American imports into Mexico, as well as non-tariff measures, on March 9.

Mexico was the top export market for U.S. corn, wheat, and pork in 2024.

  • The European Union has responded to the steel and aluminum tariffs by announcing retaliatory tariffs on meat, poultry, fruit and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and other American products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles and jeans.

Spotlight on Impacts of Tariffs on the State Level

Kuehl writes that individual states depend on trade for the health of their agriculture economies, reinforcing that some more than others will feel the impact. Kuehl identified struggles to be felt by 7 states in particular, noting the following:

Texas, which accounts for 10% of all goods exported to Canada, exported more than $36 billion in goods to Canada in 2024, including agricultural products like fruits and other organic materials. He adds that Mexico is also Texas’ largest market for agricultural products. Kuehl also reports that Michigan, Illinois and Ohio are among the next highest exporters to Canada, and for its part, California exports millions of dollars in fruits and agricultural products to Canada.

Additionally, California, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are also major exporters of agricultural products to Mexico, writes Kuehl. He added, “Hit with the 25 percent tariffs from Canada, industries in these states are likely to see significant changes in business revenues, with consumer prices also at risk of increasing if the trade war between the two countries escalates.”

Farmer Feedback

While President Trump told U.S. farmers to be ready to market their products domestically, Kuehl adds, “This approach has been met with skepticism regarding its feasibility as U.S. producers depend upon accessing international markets for their financial stability.”

In forecasting the outlook for agricultural producers, Kuehl addressed additional impacts, writing, “The president’s tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum took effect on March 12, and Trump has announced his intention to implement reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on imports of agricultural goods starting April 2, the same date that the newly delayed Canada and Mexico are set to go into effect.”

In addition to the threat of additional Trump tariffs on Canadian dairy (250%), Kuehl noted the President has also suggested a “high” tariff on Canadian lumber, among others.

“These tariffs, if implemented, will likely result in renewed retaliation from trading partners across the globe,” says Kuehl.

In his article, Kuehl also addressed the potential emergency fund depletion for farmers. In doing so, he says, “During the first Trump administration, the USDA allocated $28 billion from the emergency Commodity Credit Corporation to support farmers. However, these funds are now largely depleted with USDA’s available CCC spending authority reduced to $4 billion. Congress will need to pass additional spending authority to replenish this fund if President Trump is to implement another market facilitation payment program for farmers.”

Action Plan Amidst Uncertainty

Zeroing in on the U.S. agriculture economic landscape, Kuehl offered insight into actions farmers may need to consider moving forward as the countdown to tariffs draws near. 

“The short-term impacts of a trade war on American agricultural producers and the broader ag industry include immediate price volatility and decreased market access,” says Kuehl. He adds, “Persistent trade conflicts can lead to a loss of market share as global buyers turn to more reliable suppliers, potentially causing lasting harm to the U.S. agricultural sector. Unpredictability severely impacts the ability to plan, invest, and grow. Our producers need stable and fair-trade agreements to thrive in a global market,” says Kuehl. “Producers should be proactive in understanding the specifics of tariff effects and engage with policy makers. Producers must communicate the real-world impacts of these tariffs on their livelihoods. It’s essential to elevate your voice.”

A principal with Pinion, Kuehl leads the firm’s Government and Public Affairs service area. With a background in environmental law and regulations, he identifies and educates business owners on how to influence and change political systems for a market advantage. Kuehl has earned a Certificate in Advanced Environmental Studies, Harvard University, Graduate School of Design; Juris Doctor, Environmental and Natural Resources law, University of Colorado School of Law; and holds a Bachelor of Science, Psychology, Philosophy, Political Science, University of California, Davis.

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