2013-16 was a tough set of years for equipment dealerships. After 4 years of record sales from 2010-13, equipment dealers had filled their lots with late-model, low-hour equipment and demand had started to slip in late 2013 and early 2014. As used equipment — namely planters and combines — had little to no demand, the auction market became the go to avenue for equipment dealers to relieve the pressure of equipment on the balance sheet. 

As 2017 approached, the idea of the mass auction began to subside. The frequency and velocity of multi-million dollar single entity auctions slowed and the market ushered in the new normal. 2017 was a year where nothing got better, but nothing got worse. 

Much like 2013-16, late 2022-24 were tough years. As manufactures shored up supply chains, a back log of orders from 2021-22 were all delivered in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the through 2023, resulting in 2.5 years’ worth of trades flooding the market. Coupled with high interest rates, exponential machine price increases over the previous 3 years and a decrease in on-farm income, the market was juiced with an incredible supply of used late-mode, low-hour equipment on dealer lots that were, just a few years prior, mostly empty. 

Casey Seymour

The volume and velocity of multi-million dollar auctions ramped up earlier in the year and more often than in previous years. Much like in 2017, dealers were done with auctions and have moved to different avenues to sell equipment. Much like 2017, 2025 will be a year that nothing’s gets better but nothing gets worse. 

Like 2017, the volume of equipment listed for sale at auction is down year-over-year, and supply of used equipment as a whole is starting to stabilize. I look for this to continue further into the 2025 as the number of new orders placed in 2024 for 2025 delivery was substantially reduced as reported by manufacturers during order writing periods. Reports of 25-30% reductions in new orders will limit the amount of used equipment added to the current supply. 

Several platforms are already showing signs of leveling off — combines, planters and row-crop heads most notably. Sprayers and 175 horsepower and greater tractors are showing growth through the first quarter of 2025, but I anticipated a slow down heading into the second quarter. 

A metric I follow is the retail list price as a percentage of auction value. When the retail price exceeds 120% of auction value, more customers are willing to assume the risk of auctions, and as the gap widens more and more customers shop the auctions first. At the height of 2015-16 the ratio was 150-200% retail to auction, accelerating auction activity. At the end of 2017 heading into 2018, the ratio had greatly condensed to 115-107% retail to auction value. 

2023-24 saw a similar range of retail to auction ratio, 150-200%. Currently, I am tracking the range at 140-150% retail to auction value. As used equipment continue to stabilize supply and used equipment values continue to reprice closer and tighter to market conditions, I anticipate the market to settle within 10-15% of the 120% retail to auction goal by the end of 2025 heading into 2026.

Although there is a lot of year left, the conversations I’ve had with dealers suggest things are better than expected through the first quarter of the year. But that’s not saying much when you expect a very slow start to the year. 

My outlook is the first 2.5 quarters of the year will show little to no growth but not going backward and in the last 1.5 quarters buying will pick up heading into 2026. Commodity prices are contracting at profitable levels and if they hold there, we’ll see some money spent at the end of the year. The positive side of this is a year where there will be little to no dealer stock of new equipment on lots. Further opening the door for used equipment readily available on dealer lots.

Like 2017, 2025 will set the stage for what the new normal will look like heading into 2026 and beyond. Unlike years in the past, dealerships will be faced with a changing market that will set and reset by technology and changing buying habits of customers through the end of this decade. I have a feeling the new normal won’t last as long this time.