LanzaJet, a 2010 startup that pioneered a proprietary technology to produce “Sustainable Aviation Fuel” (SAF) from ethanol feedstocks, opened a full-scale ethanol-to-jet refinery in Soperton, Ga., in late January drawing much fanfare from industry and government entities. The LanzaJet Freedom Pines Fuels facility is slated to produce 10 million gallons of SAF and renewable diesel per year from certified low-carbon ethanol, which meets U.S. and global standards.

For comparison, the Biden Administration’s “SAF Grand Challenge” decarbonization goals call for a domestic supply of 3 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2030 to tangibly reduce aviation emissions, which some estimate is responsible for 2-3% of annual global CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere. Recent conservative estimates released by Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS), an Iowa agriculture economics firm, peg the total potential aviation market demand for SAF by 2050 at 35 billion gallons per year.

To qualify as SAF, the fuel must be capable of cutting carbon emissions by at least 50% from comparable jet fuel produced with petroleum-related feedstocks. 

LanzaJet’s commercial entry into the aviation fuel market is the culmination of a collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, an association that saw the first commercial flights using its ethanol-to-jet fuel by Virgin Atlantic and All Nippon Airways in in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

“Our novel LanzaJet ethanol-to-SAF process is now deployed at our commercial plant in Georgia, which will convert ethanol into drop-in SAF,” says Jimmy Samartzis, company CEO. He says the technology will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% using a variety of sustainable feedstocks such as agricultural waste, municipal solid waste, energy crops and CO₂ captured from industrial processes.

Sounds like a great thing for U.S. corn growers who are watching what appears to be a natural market price cycle entering a downward trend — depressed by continually increasing corn yields and competition in the Southern Hemisphere. Even with drought conditions, corn prices are down a couple of bucks from only a year or so ago. The new plant in Georgia should really help. Right?

Well, not so fast. The new plant in Georgia is using so-called “low carbon” ethanol, imported from Brazil, a country which has invested in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) ethanol production. Ethanol facilities there capture naturally-occurring CO₂ from alcohol fermentation to prevent its escape into the atmosphere. Usually that means it is disposed of underground. The result is ethanol produced in that fashion has a very low Carbon Index (CI) … the number needed to reliably produce ethanol fit for making SAF.

Currently, the American corn grower is watching the demand for fuel ethanol being eroded by a transportation fleet that has become much more fuel efficient over the past two decades, the adoption of electric vehicles which avoid liquid fuel pumps and pay no road taxes and increased global competition in the ethanol market. At the same time, they are facing a realization that, with the exception of one ethanol plant in South Dakota, no U.S.-based ethanol production is equipped with CSS capability. The result, the CI rating for domestic U.S. corn-based ethanol is too high to qualify as feedstock for SAF production.

Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

The inability of U.S. ethanol to meet the standards of what appears to be a wide-open market for airlines hungry for ways to reduce their own carbon footprint is a huge stumbling block — or an excellent opportunity.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Assn. says it’s time to act.

Monte Shaw, executive director of the IFRA, says with every passing day American farmers and ethanol producers are losing demand until the industry adopts CCS.

“LanzaJet is proving SAF from ethanol is here today,” he explains. “Now it’s up to us to produce a qualifying ethanol feedstock … and CCS is the key to the new market. Regardless of individual views on carbon policy, our business is making products our customers want and right now we can’t do that.”

Shaw says the market is there, noting domestic U.S. airlines and those in Europe and Asia are willing to switch to SAF as it’s available.

Dan Keitzer, a corn producer and chair of the Iowa Corn Usage and Production Committee, says the current situation is “unsettling.”

“The new SAF market is potentially massive according to the DIS study, and corn growers are experiencing larger carryout numbers over the past several years,” he says. “For Iowa alone to meet the demand, DIS projects it would require 11 new 200-million-gallon-per-year ethanol plants, 5 new ethanol-to-jet SAF facilities and 3 new facilities to convert soybean oil, fats and greases to SAF.”

It will take an industry response from growers, CEOs, bankers and elected representatives to answer the question of whether the glass of U.S. ethanol can be filled or if it will quietly evaporate away.