The USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2024/25, with U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat slightly above or below consensus. Corn stocks are estimated at 1.540B bushels, soybeans at 380MM bushels, and wheat at 794MM bushels. U.S. stocks-to-use ratios for corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected at 10.2%, 8.7%, and 39.6%, respectively. The report is seen as neutral for U.S. farmers, with slightly above-consensus soybean and corn stocks, and slightly below wheat stocks. U.S. farm gate prices are adjusted: $4.35 for corn (up from $4.25), $10.10 for soybeans (down from $10.20), and $5.55 for wheat (unchanged).
Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan estimates
Global stocks for major crops are forecast to decrease by 3% YoY. Global stocks-to-use ratios are estimated at 23.5% for corn, 30.4% for soybeans, and 32.0% for wheat. Ukraine’s wheat production is unchanged at 22.9MMT, while its corn production is down 18% to 26.5MMT. Brazil and Argentina’s soybean production is up by 10% and 2%, respectively. Combined global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected to drop 3% YoY to 672MMT.
Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan
The USDA's 2024/25 global supply and demand report reflects relatively stable U.S. crop production and demand, with few major changes to key figures. The report also highlights a slight decrease in U.S. wheat ending stocks, and a rise in the U.S. corn price projection, while soybean prices are slightly lowered. Global crop stocks are expected to decline by 3% from the previous year, driven by a reduction in corn and wheat supplies, particularly from Ukraine, while South American soybean production shows moderate growth. Despite these adjustments, the report’s overall outlook is considered neutral for U.S. farmers, with some minor adjustments to expectations for farm gate prices and global crop stocks.
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