Coming off a year where dealers had to battle lower commodity prices, increasing costs for equipment and inputs, the uncertainty of an election year and high new and used equipment inventory, the outlook for 2025 revenues skews negative with the lowest percentage of dealers forecasting new equipment revenue growth seen in over a decade.

Over two-thirds of dealers (64.3%) are forecasting new equipment revenues to be down at least 2% in 2025. This compares to 28.8% who forecast a decline for 2024 and is more than double the percentage of dealers forecasting a decline for 2023 new equipment revenue. The last time at least half of dealers were forecasting new equipment revenues to decline was in 2015. That year, when 50% of dealers forecast their new equipment sales would be down at least 2%, North American row-crop tractor and combine unit sales were down 25.9% year-over-year.

About a quarter of dealers are forecasting their new equipment revenue to be flat in 2025, while 12.4% predict revenue from new equipment sales will be up at least 2% in the year ahead.

The good news for 2025 revenues will come from the aftermarket side of the business. 

The majority of dealers forecast parts and service revenues to be as good or better than 2024. Notably, over 90% of dealers say their service revenue will be as good or better (42.0% flat, 43.2% up 2-7% and 7.4% up 8% or more). Turning to parts revenue, it’s a similar picture with 43.2% projecting flat revenues, 44.4% forecasting growth of 2-7% and 4.9% expecting revenues to be up 8% or more.

The full report will be released to Ag Equipment Intelligence subscribers next week.

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