“Our record fourth quarter results for sales and adjusted EBITDA are an ideal way for AGI to close-out another record year,” noted Paul Householder, President & CEO of AGI. “With progress across our three corporate strategic priorities – profitable organic growth, operational excellence, balance sheet discipline – and tangible improvements on the KPIs we use to track these three priorities, we are highly encouraged by the significant progress and growth achieved in 2022. With a strong backlog, momentum across the business, and a clear set of initiatives to continue our growth trajectory, we look forward to another excellent year for AGI in 2023.”

Highlights:

Fourth Quarter 2022 Highlights

  • Record fourth quarter results for sales and adjusted EBITDA
  • Sales increased 14% to $271 million on a year-over-year basis
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $37 million on a YOY basis
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.6% vs 13.7% on a YOY basis
  • Total leverage ratio of 3.7x at Dec. 31, 2022 vs 4.1x at Sept. 30, 2022 and 4.7x at Dec. 31, 2021

Full year 2022 Highlights

  • Third consecutive year of record sales and adjusted EBITDA results with growth largely attributable to organic growth efforts and initiatives
  • Sales increased 22% to $1.1 billion on a YOY basis
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 33% to $171 million on a YOY basis
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin2 of 16.1% vs 14.7% on a YOY basis

Outlook

  • Management expects full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be at least $189 million 
  • Backlog is up 10% YOY as of Dec. 31, 2022, despite the deferred or cancelled orders as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, and is sitting at record-levels for year-end and near-record levels all-time

Total sales for 2022 were $1.1 billion, up 22% year-over-year vs. $869.5 million in 2021. Sales from the farm segment in 2022 were $564 million (up 20% year-over-year) while sales in the commercial segment were $493 million (up 23%).

U.S. sales were $471.5 million for the year (22% year-over-year) and Canadian sales were $241.8 million (up 24%).

In a note to investors, Raymond James analyst Steven Hansen noted that AGI's 4Q22 EBITDA of $37 million was ahead of the Raymond James estimate of $34 million "underpinned by strength across both the Farm (+24%) and Commercial (+6%) segments.

"On a regional basis, Canada (+88%, improved crop yields) and US (+11%) markets remained robust, while International lagged (-5%), largely due to fallout from the Ukraine/Russia conflict and Brazilian commercial project timing," the note said. "That said, management struck an upbeat and optimistic tone in the call, noting its strong backlog in Brazil (+110%) & India (+27%), further complemented by a very robust quoting pipeline across most regions, including EMEA. Management anticipates the company’s near-record backlog will provide solid sales momentum heading into 2023."

Dealer Inventories Return to Normal

Speaking during the earnings call, Paul Householder XXX, said the company expects dealer inventories to return to normal in 2023, saying:

"As we look at dealer inventories, I'll start by commenting on 2020 to where we did see dealer inventory soften in 2022. That was for various reasons. As we looked at the different farm activity that was ongoing. We had very strong activity from a portable standpoint and a little bit of softer activity on the permanent standpoint. But as we enter 2023, we do see dealers now moving their inventories back to normal levels.

"That is part of the accelerated performance that we saw in our Canada business in Q4. That business was up substantially in Q4. Part of that was the inventory levels in our dealers strengthening and getting back to the normal level and then supporting the activity that we expect underpinning, obviously, that the build of dealer inventories is strong demand from the farmers and the farm segment. So rounding out, we would see dealer inventories back to normal levels here early in 2023, supported by strong demand in the business across the regions."

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