A research note issued today by Ann Duignan, J.P. Morgan, provided good news for equipment demand, including agriculture.
“In general, we believe the tax changes will be a positive for Machinery stocks; a 21% U.S. tax rate could in itself boost after-tax profits by about 10% on average across the group, according to our initial assessment,” she wrote. “Additionally, elements of the bill such as accelerated depreciation and larger Section 179 deductions could have a positive impact on underlying equipment demand, especially in key markets such as agriculture and trucking.”
Her analysis showed the potential impact of a 21% U.S. tax rate on J.P. Morgan’s current earnings per share (EPS) estimates. JP Morgan projected the following calendar year impact on EPS of 10.3% for John Deere (48% sales mix in the U.S.), 4.2% for AGCO (19% sales mix in the U.S.) and 4.0% for CNH Industrial (19% sales mix in the U.S.)