The farm equipment demand cycle will reach a bottom in the next year to 18 months, according to Andrew Casey, analyst with Wells Fargo & Co.
An Oct. 10 report from Bloomberg cites Casey’s note to investors that raised the bank’s valuation of Deere & Co. shares from $85-$88 to $100- $103. “That turnaround will mean improved sales volumes and margins in Deere’s fiscal 2017 and 2018,” Casey said.
The report went on to say that Deere may already be seeing improved demand in Brazil, parts of Europe, Ukraine, Russia and India. According to the Wells Fargo note, the company will also see better returns than competitors over the next 10 years due to reductions in structural costs, and its initiatives in agricultural technology. “Demand appears to be flattening as dealer pricing drops” in the U.S. and Canada, Casey wrote.
Such a recovery would bring much-needed relief to Deere, which has cut production amid a recession in the agricultural economy. When the company reports earnings next month, it’s expected to post a third consecutive year of falling revenue and net income, he said.
The Wells Fargo analyst also raised his price target for AGCO from $46-$49 to $60-$63. In doing so, Casey wrote in a note, “After 3 years of demand decline, the company will benefit from an anticipated bottoming in global farm equipment demand. More favorable indications in Brazil and Europe should benefit approximately 70% of the company’s revenue mix.”
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