Crop Receipts to Stabilize in ’10 But Livestock to Fall Further

Not including government payments, total farm cash receipts are expected to decline to about $284 billion, or by 12.4%, in 2009. Despite the falloff, cash receipts are expected to remain at the third highest level on record.

Deere & Co. is forecasting a recovery in cash receipts in 2010 to $299 billion — up 4.6% not including government payments. But JP Morgan’s Ann Duignan believes weakness in the protein sector will continue to pressure crop demand and is forecasting a slight decline in cash receipts to $280 billion, or down 1.4% in 2010, not including government receipts.

While crop receipts are expected to pretty much hold their own in 2010, receipts from livestock are anticipated to drop dramatically for full-year 2009, but improve somewhat next year. Deere is forecasting livestock receipts to improve to $130.9 billion next year. JP Morgan’s estimates, on the other hand, call for only $120 billion in 2010, far from the highs of 2008.

— From the September 2009 issue of Ag Equipment Intelligence